SAIF · College Basketball · Dry run

Paper first. Capital later.

Monday, November 9 · 34 games · updated 10:15 AM ET

No SAIF capital until the gates are met. Every game is logged at this morning’s line and graded the next day against its closing line. The test is whether the line moves our way (CLV), not the win–loss record.

Sides

edge 3+Not yet

203 / 300 graded plays

Avg CLV+0.08target > 0

Beat close38%worse 32%

At entry92-111-0-27.4u

Totals

edge 4+Not yet

124 / 300 graded plays

Avg CLV+0.02target > 0

Beat close36%worse 38%

At entry62-61-1-4.6u

CLV vs our own timestamped pre-tip close: sides +0.11 on 78 plays (toward 35% / against 32%); totals -0.01 on 40 plays (toward 38% / against 32%).

Live results by day

Every logged game, graded at the morning entry line; CLV vs the closing line. Full log: cbb/state/graded.csv in the repo.

Date	Games	Side plays · CLV	Total plays · CLV	All sides CLV
Nov 8	29	5-11-0 · +0.11	1-5-0 · +0.38	+0.11
Nov 7	48	10-15-0 · +0.36	9-5-0 · +0.29	+0.22
Nov 6	59	18-22-0 · +0.22	14-9-0 · +0.24	+0.11
Nov 5	43	10-15-0 · +0.08	5-5-0 · +0.45	+0.09
Nov 4	10	2-1-0 · +0.00	3-2-0 · -0.20	+0.33
Nov 3	19	5-7-0 · -0.10	3-4-0 · -0.07	-0.30
Nov 2	115	42-40-0 · -0.04	27-31-1 · -0.21	-0.03

Backtest results (2022–26) ↓

Gates, results by edge & recent plays

Go-wet gates (sides and totals separately): 300 graded plays, average CLV above zero, and the line moving our way more often than against us. CLV = points the line moved toward our side between this morning and tip.

Edge	Games	At entry	Avg CLV	Beat close
Side 0–1.5	68	36-30-2	-0.03	35%
Side 1.5–3	52	18-33-1	+0.07	42%
Side 3–5	76	34-42-0	+0.16	46%
Side 5+	127	58-69-0	+0.04	33%
Total 0–2	109	50-58-1	+0.07	42%
Total 2–4	90	53-37-0	+0.20	42%
Total 4–6	59	29-30-0	-0.06	34%
Total 6+	65	33-31-1	+0.09	38%

Recent plays

Date		Pick (entry)	Close	CLV
11-08	Side	Wichita State +6	+6.25	-0.2	L
11-08	Side	California +19.5	+19.5	+0.0	W
11-08	Side	William & Mary -9.5	-10.5	+1.0	W
11-08	Side	Saint Mary's +1.5	+1.5	+0.0	W
11-08	Total	Under 146	146.5	-0.5	L
11-08	Total	Under 164.5	163	+1.5	L
11-08	Side	Idaho State +6	+5.75	+0.2	L
11-08	Total	Under 161.5	161	+0.5	L
11-08	Side	Dartmouth -6.5	-8.5	+2.0	L
11-08	Total	Under 159.25	158.25	+1.0	L
11-08	Side	St. Thomas-Minnesota -8.5	-7.5	-1.0	L
11-08	Side	UAlbany +1.5	+2.5	-1.0	L
11-08	Side	Campbell +5.5	+4.5	+1.0	L
11-08	Side	Southeast Missouri State +17.25	+17.5	-0.2	W
11-08	Side	Siena +1.5	+0.75	+0.8	W
11-08	Total	Under 154.5	154.75	-0.2	W
11-08	Side	New Hampshire -1.5	-1.5	+0.0	L
11-08	Side	Bryant +1.5	+1.5	+0.0	L
11-08	Side	Maine -3.5	-2.5	-1.0	L
11-08	Side	Arkansas +3	+3.75	-0.8	L
11-08	Side	Iona +28.5	+27.5	+1.0	L
11-08	Total	Under 150.5	150.5	+0.0	L
11-07	Total	Under 150.5	151.5	-1.0	W
11-07	Side	UC Irvine -8	-8.5	+0.5	W
11-07	Total	Under 144	144	+0.0	W
11-07	Side	Santa Clara -21.5	-20	-1.5	L
11-07	Total	Under 171.5	169	+2.5	W
11-07	Side	Weber State +8.25	+7	+1.2	W
11-07	Side	Bradley -0.75	-1.5	+0.8	L
11-07	Side	Northwestern State +24.5	+23	+1.5	W

Model — opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency plus tempo, refit every morning from this season’s games with last season as a fading prior. Totals use a separately tuned version that discounts hot and cold three-point shooting. Backtest (2022–26): neither version beats closing lines, but against opening lines the market moved toward the model, more so as the edge grew. Research tool, not betting advice.

Today’s plays

22 side · 9 total · paper only

Side plays need a model edge of 3+ points vs this morning’s line; totals need 4+. Logged for grading, not bet. Tap a play to jump to its game.

Line = this morning’s consensus home spread, favorite shown with −. Pick solid = side edge 5+ / total edge 6+; outline = play (3+ side, 4+ total). Smaller edges show as No play.

Team search

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Conference

Tip time · ET

34 of 34 games shown

6:00 PM ETSun Belt / Big Ten

Marshall at Ohio State

LineOhio State -26 · Total162.5 · 8 books

Side

Marshall +26

Model Ohio State -18.5 · Edge 7.4

Total

No play

Model 160.2 · Edge 2.3

6:30 PM ETACC / Big TenNeutral

Syracuse vs Indiana

LineIndiana -5.5 · Total147.5 · 8 books

Side

Syracuse +5.5

Model Indiana -2 · Edge 3.5

Total

Over 147.5

Model 151.7 · Edge 4.2

6:30 PM ETMEAC / Ivy

Howard at Pennsylvania

LinePennsylvania -6.5 · Total156.5 · 7 books

Side

No play

Model Pennsylvania -5.5 · Edge 0.8

Total

No play

Model 155.4 · Edge 1.1

7:00 PM ETNEC / Big East

Wagner at UConn

LineUConn -40.5 · Total140.5 · 7 books

Side

Wagner +40.5

Model UConn -31.5 · Edge 8.8

Total

No play

Model 137.7 · Edge 2.8

7:00 PM ETNEC / Ivy

Stonehill at Columbia

LineColumbia -13.5 · Total145 · 7 books

Side

No play

Model Columbia -12 · Edge 1.6

Total

No play

Model 141.6 · Edge 3.4

7:00 PM ETASUN / ACC

North Florida at Miami

LineMiami -37.5 · Total164.5 · 7 books

Side

North Florida +37.5

Model Miami -27 · Edge 10.6

Total

No play

Model 165.1 · Edge 0.6

7:00 PM ETNEC / CAA

Long Island University at Towson

LineTowson -6.5 · Total141.5 · 5 books

Side

No play

Model Towson -7.5 · Edge 1.0

Total

No play

Model 139.1 · Edge 2.4

7:00 PM ETBig South / Sun Belt

South Carolina Upstate at Coastal Carolina

LineCoastal Carolina -10.5 · Total149.5 · 7 books

Side

South Carolina Upstate +10.5

Model Coastal Carolina -7.5 · Edge 3.2

Total

No play

Model 145.9 · Edge 3.6

7:00 PM ETOVC / ACC

Eastern Illinois at Notre Dame

LineNotre Dame -28.5 · Total141.5 · 7 books

Side

Eastern Illinois +28.5

Model Notre Dame -24 · Edge 4.6

Total

No play

Model 140.2 · Edge 1.3

7:00 PM ETMEAC / NEC

South Carolina State at Chicago State

LineChicago State -1.5 · Total147.5 · 7 books

Side

No play

Model Chicago State -4.5 · Edge 2.9

Total

No play

Model 147.5 · Edge 0.0

7:00 PM ETSummit / ASUN

Kansas City at Jacksonville

LineJacksonville -4.5 · Total147.5 · 7 books

Side

Jacksonville -4.5

Model Jacksonville -8.5 · Edge 4.2

Total

Under 147.5

Model 143.0 · Edge 4.5

7:00 PM ETSoCon / MVC

UNC Greensboro at UIC

LineUIC -19.75 · Total150 · 8 books

Side

UNC Greensboro +19.75

Model UIC -15.5 · Edge 4.2

Total

No play

Model 147.7 · Edge 2.3

7:00 PM ETASUN / SEC

Florida Gulf Coast at Georgia

LineGeorgia -23.5 · Total160.5 · 7 books

Side

Florida Gulf Coast +23.5

Model Georgia -17.5 · Edge 6.2

Total

No play

Model 160.5 · Edge 0.0

7:00 PM ETSummit / ACC

North Dakota at Clemson

LineClemson -21.5 · Total153.5 · 8 books

Side

No play

Model Clemson -20 · Edge 1.3

Total

Under 153.5

Model 147.9 · Edge 5.6

7:00 PM ETBig South / SEC

Radford at Tennessee

LineTennessee -29.5 · Total153.5 · 7 books

Side

Radford +29.5

Model Tennessee -26.5 · Edge 3.2

Total

Under 153.5

Model 149.3 · Edge 4.2

7:00 PM ETSWAC / SEC

Grambling at Texas

LineTexas -37.5 · Total152.5 · 7 books

Side

Grambling +37.5

Model Texas -28.5 · Edge 9.1

Total

No play

Model 148.7 · Edge 3.8

7:00 PM ETHorizon / MAC

Cleveland State at Bowling Green

LineBowling Green -12.5 · Total156 · 8 books

Side

Bowling Green -12.5

Model Bowling Green -19.5 · Edge 7.2

Total

No play

Model 155.3 · Edge 0.7

7:00 PM ETBig Ten / Big 12

Minnesota at Cincinnati

LineCincinnati -6.5 · Total144.5 · 8 books

Side

No play

Model Cincinnati -7.5 · Edge 0.9

Total

Under 144.5

Model 134.0 · Edge 10.5

7:30 PM ETSWAC / American

Florida A&M at UAB

LineUAB -18.5 · Total155.5 · 7 books

Side

No play

Model UAB -18.5 · Edge 0.2

Total

No play

Model 154.7 · Edge 0.8

7:30 PM ETSWAC / SEC

Jackson State at Mississippi State

LineMississippi State -23.5 · Total156.5 · 7 books

Side

No play

Model Mississippi State -25.5 · Edge 1.8

Total

No play

Model 157.3 · Edge 0.8

7:30 PM ETHorizon / SEC

Oakland at Alabama

LineAlabama -32.25 · Total170.5 · 8 books

Side

Oakland +32.25

Model Alabama -25 · Edge 7.5

Total

No play

Model 174.4 · Edge 3.9

8:00 PM ETSun Belt / SEC

UL Monroe at Texas A&M

LineTexas A&M -38 · Total168.25 · 8 books

Side

UL Monroe +38

Model Texas A&M -34.5 · Edge 3.3

Total

No play

Model 164.5 · Edge 3.7

8:00 PM ETPatriot / Big Ten

Boston University at Northwestern

LineNorthwestern -16.5 · Total144.5 · CBBD line

Side

No play

Model Northwestern -15.5 · Edge 0.8

Total

No play

Model 143.9 · Edge 0.6

8:00 PM ETOVC / SEC

SIU Edwardsville at Missouri

LineMissouri -31.5 · Total149.5 · 8 books

Side

SIU Edwardsville +31.5

Model Missouri -21 · Edge 10.6

Total

Under 149.5

Model 142.6 · Edge 6.9

8:00 PM ETSun Belt / SEC

Louisiana Tech at LSU

LineLSU -30 · Total150.25 · 8 books

Side

Louisiana Tech +30

Model LSU -17 · Edge 12.9

Total

Under 150.25

Model 145.8 · Edge 4.4

8:00 PM ETUAC / SEC

North Alabama at Oklahoma

LineOklahoma -27.5 · Total146.25 · 8 books

Side

North Alabama +27.5

Model Oklahoma -18.5 · Edge 8.9

Total

No play

Model 149.9 · Edge 3.6

8:30 PM ETMVC / Big Ten

Illinois State at Purdue

LinePurdue -15.5 · Total143.5 · 8 books

Side

No play

Model Purdue -13 · Edge 2.4

Total

No play

Model 145.7 · Edge 2.2

9:00 PM ETAmerican / Big East

Charlotte at Seton Hall

LineSeton Hall -4.75 · Total131.5 · 8 books

Side

Seton Hall -4.75

Model Seton Hall -12 · Edge 7.0

Total

No play

Model 133.5 · Edge 2.0

9:00 PM ETSWAC / Big East

Alabama A&M at DePaul

LineDePaul -24.5 · Total139.5 · 7 books

Side

Alabama A&M +24.5

Model DePaul -18 · Edge 6.3

Total

No play

Model 139.3 · Edge 0.2

9:00 PM ETSun Belt / SEC

App State at Auburn

LineAuburn -23.5 · Total145.5 · 8 books

Side

App State +23.5

Model Auburn -17.5 · Edge 6.0

Total

No play

Model 144.3 · Edge 1.2

9:30 PM ETBig Sky / Pac-12

Eastern Washington at Oregon State

LineOregon State -17 · Total161.5 · 8 books

Side

Eastern Washington +17

Model Oregon State -13.5 · Edge 3.6

Total

Under 161.5

Model 154.6 · Edge 6.9

10:00 PM ETAmerican / ACC

Rice at Stanford

LineStanford -18.5 · Total146.25 · 8 books

Side

No play

Model Stanford -16 · Edge 2.4

Total

No play

Model 145.5 · Edge 0.7

10:00 PM ETSWAC / Big Ten

Mississippi Valley State at Washington

LineWashington -34.5 · Total151.5 · CBBD line

Side

No play

Model Washington -34 · Edge 0.3

Total

Under 151.5

Model 146.9 · Edge 4.6

11:59 PM ETWCC / Mountain West

Portland at Hawai'i

LineHawai'i -7 · Total157 · 8 books

Side

Hawai'i -7

Model Hawai'i -12.5 · Edge 5.3

Total

No play

Model 153.2 · Edge 3.8

Backtest

Same model, replayed over past seasons using only games played before each date. Highlighted row = the play threshold used live. Built 2026-11-03.

Sides

walk-forward, no peeking

vs closing line: 50.1% ATS on 21,910 games (2022-2025), 50.4% on the 2026 holdout (5,748). Average miss 9.05 pts vs the market’s 8.79.

vs opening line (2025–26, the seasons with openers) — did the line move our way before tip?

Edge	Games	Avg CLV	Toward / against	At open
0+	7,536	+0.16	43% / 36%	50.7% 3806-3703
2+	2,423	+0.32	48% / 35%	50.8% 1225-1187
3+	1,216	+0.39	48% / 37%	50.7% 615-597
4+	675	+0.55	48% / 38%	52.2% 351-321
6+	274	+0.98	49% / 42%	54.6% 149-124

Totals

walk-forward, no peeking

vs closing line: 50.1% O/U on 21,923 games (2022-2025), 49.8% on the 2026 holdout (5,747). Average miss 13.08 pts vs the market’s 12.87.

vs opening line (2025–26, the seasons with openers) — did the line move our way before tip?

Edge	Games	Avg CLV	Toward / against	At open
0+	7,453	+0.43	52% / 35%	51.7% 3835-3584
2+	3,801	+0.66	57% / 31%	52.3% 1980-1804
4+	1,524	+0.89	60% / 30%	53.6% 813-704
6+	535	+1.04	62% / 30%	52.1% 277-255
9+	116	+0.71	53% / 40%	49.1% 57-59