SAIF · Sports Alternative Investment Fund

Model performance

ATS record by tier matchup and conference, both models graded on identical games.

Live 2026 tracking starts below. The 2023–2025 tables further down are the historical backtest used to validate the tier/conference split before trusting it live — they don't change week to week. The live cards above are graded on actual final scores and update as each week's games finish.

2026 Season — Live LIVE

Graded on actual final scores as each week finishes. Weeks 4–7 tracked so far.

Week	W	L	P	ATS%	Units

2026 — Model plays vs. all games (Live)

2026 — Model vs. simple strategies (Live)

Same games, same lines, no model: what betting every underdog, favorite or home team would have done. A model worth betting has to beat these.

2026 — Which side the model takes (Live)

Whether the picks are laying points or getting them, and home or away. Shows if the record comes from one kind of bet.

2026 — By Tier Matchup (Live)

Same tier_gap split as the backtest below, tracked live.

Group	W	L	P	ATS%	Units

Overall — 2023–2025

Season	W	L	P	ATS%	Units

2023–2025 Backtest — By Tier Matchup

P4vP4 / G5vG5 / Cross-tier — where the tier_gap bias finding lives.

Group	W	L	P	ATS%	Units

2023–2025 Backtest — By Conference

Attributed by home team's conference. Conferences under 10 games omitted.

Conference	W	L	P	ATS%	Units

strict_p4 policy: ACC/Big Ten/Big 12/SEC = P4, AAC/C-USA/MAC/Mountain West/Sun Belt = G5, Independents/Pac-12 = Other.